SpaceX Stock Has Lost Half Its Value Since Its Own IPO High

Keypoints:

• Stock has fallen from $226 to $113. 
• The real danger date is August 6. Insider lockup starts expiring two days after SpaceX's first earnings report (Aug 4)
• Around $116 to $123 billion in shares could become sellable then. 
• At 101x sales, it's the priciest stock in the Nasdaq-100 by far

Two months ago, SpaceX pulled off the largest IPO in history. This week, its stock closed at $113, down 50% from the $226 peak it hit just days after going public on June 12.

The IPO raised $75 billion and valued SpaceX at an unprecedented $1.7 trillion at its $135 offering price. Shares jumped 50% in the first three trading days alone, riding a wave of retail and institutional demand for one of the most anticipated debuts in market history. 

None of that enthusiasm held. The stock crossed below its own IPO price in mid-July for the first time, and the slide hasn't really let up since, with SpaceX now pacing for its tenth negative session in twelve.

Some of this is just how IPOs behave. Early investors who got in at the offering price tend to book quick profits once the initial excitement cools, creating selling pressure that has little to do with the underlying business. Analysts at The Motley Fool describe the current decline as a blend of normal post-IPO digestion and company-specific worry, not a verdict on SpaceX's long-term prospects.

But one date coming up in August gives this particular slide real teeth. SpaceX's IPO lockup, the window that keeps insiders from selling their shares, starts expiring on August 6, two days after the company's first earnings report as a public company. 

On that date, roughly 20% of eligible shares become available for sale, and if the stock trades above $175.50 for five of the ten trading days before then, another 10% unlocks early. Less than 5% of SpaceX's total stock currently trades freely, so even modest insider selling could meaningfully add to supply right when investors are already jumpy.

There's a valuation question sitting underneath all of this too. At current prices, SpaceX trades at roughly 101 times sales, the most expensive stock in the entire Nasdaq-100 by a wide margin, well ahead of Rocket Lab in second place at 73 times sales. A few analysts argue the stock could fall another 50% from here before it lines up with what private investors valued the company at before it ever went public.

Not everyone's heading for the exits, though. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought roughly $21 million worth of SpaceX stock as shares fell 45% from their record high, a bet that this pullback is an opportunity rather than the start of something worse. Wall Street's median price target currently sits at $243.81, more than double where shares trade today, a level of optimism the market clearly isn't sharing right now. 

SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report as a public company lands August 4, and it'll be the first real test of whether the business can justify the price tag investors originally slapped on it.