IMF Sees a Split Global Economy, With 32 Countries Driving 95% of Growth

Keypoints:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025
• Growth is forecast to recover to 3.4% in 2027
• Only 32 economies account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April
• Global inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025
• Bangladesh is projected to grow 3.2% in fiscal 2026-27, with inflation at 10.9%

The IMF released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook on 13 October at its Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The headline looks steady. The detail does not. Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's director of research, described the outlook as highly uneven.

Two forces explain the split. A war-driven energy price shock is weighing on energy importers. Artificial intelligence (AI) investment is lifting economies tied to the global technology supply chain. The IMF assumes oil will average about $96 a barrel this year, against $68 in 2025.

The regional picture is wide. Advanced economies are forecast to grow 2.1% in 2026, and the United States 2.3%. The eurozone is expected to grow 1.1%, with Germany at 1.3% and Spain at 2.5%. India is again the fastest-growing major economy at 7%, while China is forecast at 4.5%.

Energy importers outside the technology chain face the most pressure. They deal with higher import bills, weaker currencies and rising inflation. That includes many low-income countries.

Bangladesh sits in that group. The IMF cut its fiscal 2026-27 growth forecast to 3.2% from 4.3% in April. It also raised the inflation outlook to 10.9%, up from 8.7% in the previous year. The World Bank forecasts 3.4% growth, and the Asian Development Bank forecasts 4%.

Local analysts point to energy shortages, banking sector vulnerabilities, subdued credit growth and tight fiscal limits. If the forecast holds, it would be Bangladesh's fourth straight year of slower growth. A global average can look calm while individual economies feel very different years.