Earth Just Started Heating Up Almost Twice as Fast as It Used To

Keypoints:

• • Researchers filtered out El Niño, volcanic, and solar effects from five major temperature datasets
  • The planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade since 2015
  • That compares to about 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015
  • The result held with more than 98% statistical certainty across every dataset tested
  • At the current pace, warming could permanently exceed 1.5°C before 2030

Has global warming really started speeding up, or have recent temperature records simply reflected a run of unusually warm years? Climate scientists have debated that question for years. A new study says the data now points in one direction.

Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research examined five major global temperature datasets after removing the influence of natural climate fluctuations. El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar activity all affect global temperatures over shorter periods, sometimes pushing the long-term trend higher or lower for a few years. Once those influences were filtered out, the underlying warming trend became much easier to measure.

The results showed that global temperatures have increased by roughly 0.35°C per decade since 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, the rate averaged about 0.2°C per decade. According to the researchers, the recent pace exceeds that of any decade since modern instrumental temperature records began in 1880.

Study co-author Grant Foster said the analysis provides the first statistically significant evidence that global warming has accelerated rather than simply fluctuated from year to year. The conclusion remained consistent across all five temperature datasets and every statistical approach used in the study, with more than 98% statistical confidence.

The researchers also examined what that trend could mean over the next few years. Co-author Stefan Rahmstorf said that maintaining the current rate of warming would push the planet permanently beyond the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold before 2030, earlier than many previous projections suggested. The study concludes that future warming now depends largely on how quickly global fossil fuel emissions decline.