Asia's Port Backlog Is Tying Up More Than 1 in 12 Container Ships

Keypoints:

• Congestion is absorbing 8.5% of global container capacity, about 3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)
• The 2011-2019 average was only 2.2%
• Sea-Intelligence estimates 7 to 10 months to return to June 2025 levels
• Chinese New Year on 6 February 2027 could arrive before the backlog clears
• Regional freight rates have already hit record levels

Port disruption in Asia has absorbed 8.5% of global container capacity, according to the consultancy Sea-Intelligence. Between 2011 and 2019, delays took an average of only 2.2%. That is roughly 3 million TEUs of capacity. The tied-up fleet is larger than those of all but four global container shipping lines.

Repeated typhoons sit at the heart of the problem. Freightos says congestion at origin ports has spilled into transshipment hubs, and carriers skipping badly hit ports simply move the pressure elsewhere.

Shanghai shows how severe it has become. The freight forwarder Dimerco expects the port to stay severely congested into mid-to-late October, with berthing waits above five days and waits above nine days at the Waigaoqiao terminal. 

Once a single voyage's intake reaches 120% of the vessel's baseline loading capacity, container receiving is suspended. Record Chinese container volumes and Golden Week sailing cancellations add to the strain.

The congestion also distorts the numbers. Ships bunch up around ports and then arrive in clusters, which inflates how much capacity appears to be deployed. New vessels on order have not eased the squeeze yet, because existing ships remain caught in the queues.

Past crises offer a rough clock. During the pandemic, absorbed capacity peaked at 13.8% before falling to 3.6% over 16 months. After the Red Sea crisis began, it reached 6.5% and eased to 3.7% within six months. 

That works out to about half a percentage point of recovery per month. Applied today, it means seven to ten months to return to June 2025 levels. Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, so the pre-holiday cargo rush may hit before the backlog is gone.

The outlook keeps stretching. Dimerco says congestion could persist into summer 2027. Regional freight rates have already reached record levels. HSBC expects capacity pressure to migrate toward Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent, and Philippine importers and exporters face longer, less predictable schedules. Xeneta warns shippers entering 2027 tenders not to assume the disruption will fade quickly.